The global outlook: beware falling objects

by | Jul 11, 2016 | Blog

The world economy has in the past few years undergone a dramatic shift. Chinese industrial growth – for decades 10 percent or higher – has declined nearly to nil. Global commodity prices have shifted from high to low. At the same time, the U.S. dollar has surged from...

Two decades of geopolitical analysis

by | Jun 2, 2016 | Blog

Updated April 2019 I’ve been employed to analyze geopolitics and the world economy for about twenty years now, which means, alarmingly, I’ve got a track record. (Most of my publicly-available articles are now posted on this blog.) What did I get wrong, and what did I...

A Turkish turnaround?

by | May 10, 2016 | Blog

Most reasonable people would agree that the administration of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been heading, alarmingly, towards authoritarianism. Erdoğan has been accused of imprisoning journalists, censoring the media, attempting to exert political...

Is China at risk of instability?

by | Mar 23, 2016 | Blog

In a chapter contributed to my recent edited volume on country and political risk, Michel-Henry Bouchet of the Skema Business School makes the case for a new indicator of political risk: capital flight. He writes: “when attempting to understand the complexities of...