Will China crash?

A tongue-in-cheek economic indicator with an uncanny track record of accuracy is that any country building the world’s tallest building will shortly thereafter enter recession. Malaysia completed the Petronas Towers in 1998, just in time for the Asian financial...

Brazil walks a tightrope to the World Cup

To the great annoyance of longtime Brazil analysts, presentations on Brazil inevitably tend to start with the cutting remark generally ascribed (probably incorrectly) to French President General Charles de Gaulle: “Brazil is the country of the future and always will...

Why a federal Ukraine is a worst-case scenario

Ahead of US-EU-Russia talks on the future of Ukraine on Thursday, pro-Russian protesters – possibly assisted by Russian special forces – have escalated their disruptions in Eastern Ukraine beyond Crimea. While media coverage is understandably alarmist, these...

The Eurozone’s (and Japan’s) deflation problem

I tend to be bullish on Europe – partly as a corrective to the mass of commentators who too early wrote off the crisis in the Eurozone as irresolvable. This optimism has been justified by the recent run-up in European equities, with developed European countries...

Venezuela, oil prices and political risk

Following the extraordinary people power uprising that toppled the government of Ukraine, and after weeks of protests in Caracas, Venezuela’s capital, many are asking, “will Venezuela be the next Ukraine”? There are asking the wrong question. The question is, will...