Forecasting the United States Election

The American Political Science Association, meeting in Chicago, assembled six of the world’s top scholars in the field of electoral studies to forecast the US presidential election. Their verdict? Bush, probably. The Panelists: Helmut Norpoth (SUNY Stony Brook) Brad...

The Long Shadow of Iraq’s Future

Experts frequently point to Iraq’s past – colonial history, Saddam’s brutality, ethnic rivalries – to explain the current violence. But evidence from similar regimes indicates the causes may lie not in the echoes of the past, but in the long shadow cast by Iraq’s...